Study finds no birth outcome effects from the 2016 U.S. election

A highly divisive political event can generate intense emotional reactions, but does that stress affect the health of babies in the womb? A recent IZA Discussion Paper by Ezra Golberstein, Daniel Guth and David Slusky examines this question by studying the aftermath of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, finding no measurable impact on infant birth outcomes despite evidence of changes in some maternal health b ehaviors.

The study investigates whether the 2016 election—experienced by many Americans as either an unexpected victory or a distressing defeat depending on their political views—affected pregnancies in Colorado. Because prenatal stress has been linked to adverse birth outcomes, the researchers asked whether the emotional shock of the election translated into poorer infant health.

Linking political affiliation to birth records

To answer this question, the researchers created a unique dataset by linking Colorado voter registration records with birth certificates. This allowed them to identify the political affiliation of mothers and examine whether birth outcomes differed across political groups following the election. The study is among the first to combine individual-level political data with administrative health records for parents and newborns.

The analysis covers more than 600,000 births between 2008 and 2017, with particular attention to pregnancies that overlapped with the 2016 election. The researchers examined several established indicators of infant health, including birthweight, preterm birth, small-for-gestational-age births, and Apgar scores. They also analyzed maternal behaviors during pregnancy—including smoking, alcohol consumption, and prenatal care attendance—to assess whether political stress influenced health-related decisions.

Changes in maternal behaviors, but not infant health

Despite the highly emotional and politically polarized nature of the election, the study finds no evidence that the election either harmed or improved infant birth outcomes for mothers of any political affiliation. The findings remained consistent after accounting for demographic and health characteristics, examining different stages of pregnancy, conducting robustness checks, and comparing results with previous election years.

The researchers did, however, identify changes in maternal behaviors. Among registered Democrats, smoking increased after the election, and alcohol consumption rose modestly, suggesting that some expectant mothers experienced emotional distress following the election outcome. While these behavioral changes did not lead to detectable differences in birth outcomes, they could have implications for longer-term child development that cannot be observed at birth.

The study also explored whether the effects differed among groups that may have been particularly affected by the political rhetoric surrounding the 2016 election, including racial and ethnic minorities and foreign-born mothers. Although some estimates suggested slightly poorer outcomes—particularly among Hispanic/Latina mothers registered as Democrats—none of these differences reached statistical significance, likely because of limited sample sizes.

Similarly, living in Republican-leaning, Democratic-leaning, or politically mixed neighborhoods did not produce clear or consistent differences in infant health outcomes.

Political events may shape health behaviors

The findings suggest that while major political events can influence the emotional well-being and health behaviors of pregnant individuals, these effects did not translate into measurable differences in infant health at birth in this setting.

The authors note that larger, multi-state datasets may be needed to detect more subtle effects and emphasize that some consequences of prenatal stress may emerge later in childhood rather than immediately at birth.

By linking political identity with administrative health records, the study contributes to a growing body of research on the relationship between politics and health. As political polarization continues to increase, the findings underscore the importance of understanding how major societal events influence the well-being of pregnant individuals and their families.

Download the full paper here.